Mile Trend

Maybe I should not have done this, but I plotted up my mile times over the past 7 years or so in Excel, and fitted a linear regression trend line to the data (see graphic). Unfortunately, the trend line revealed the sad truth that I'm gradually getting slower, at least at first glance. Of course, this plot only shows raw times, but does not include many variables, particularly the amount and type of training done in any particular year, injuries (such as I had in 2006), and other important factors (i.e., motivation, thinking about retiring that year, or as in 2007, playing tennis 2 or 3 times per week, thus reducing the time available for serious training).

After a closer look, I noticed that during 2001, I hovered in the low 5's for the mile. I was seriously trying to break five at the time, when I was 42 in the beginning of the year, and 43 at the end. However, I ran 5:04 in February 2001, then took off a whopping one second and ran 5:04 in December 2001. After that, I probably reduced my training and speed workouts, thus causing a rather sharp rise in the curve in 2003. Nothing much happened over the ensuing years. In 2007, my first mile attempt was way over 6 minutes, and I only just got it back down to within reason this December. That is the only glimmer of hope, as it was better than last year's time, and although the linear regression trend is clearly upward (slowing), it may potentially be reversible with some training. More on this later, and Eric promised to provide a blog related to training.